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Welcome to the EuroPris Knowledge Management System. The table below shows questions and responses from European National Agencies. Select a question for more information or use the filters on the left to narrow down questions based on Agency or Category.
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Introduction: The Prison Capacity project aims to understand how the department develops prison space supply and demand projections and how these projections are used for capacity planning. As part of this work, we would like to understand how other countries manage prison projections and decision-making to meet demand, so we can learn from other systems. We would appreciate if you could provide us with documentation which may support some of your answers.
It is not expected to change in a relevant way.
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?Yes. The population decreased in 2010 due to significant legal changes and there is capacity to cope with the present and expected situation.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built? Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?If a prison needs to be reformed, the population of this prison is usually partially reduced.
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?It depends on the situation and it is not a problem at this moment.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?Explained before.
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers? What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?According to the last Space, the occupancy rate is 73,4%.
The number of prisoners in Latvia has been decreasing slightly every year for the last 5 years, for example, in 2017 there were 3970 prisoners on average per year, in 2018 – 3657,8 prisoners, in 2019 – 3464 prisoners, in 2020 – 3237 prisoners, in 2021 – 3117,67 prisoners. A rapid increase or decrease in the number of prisoners in Latvia in the next few years could be only a result of changes in the policy of criminal penalties.
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?Taking into account the above mentioned information, a rapid increase in the number of prisoners is not projected, therefore the capacity is sufficient.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built?See answer to Question 2.
Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?In Latvia, there are no prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance).
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?Projections are made by following the dynamics of the number of prisoners every week, creating reports on the types of prisons and the maximum number of prisoners that can be housed in them and their actual number, as well as before planned major changes in the execution of criminal sentences.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?No significant changes have been observed.
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers?See answer to Question 6.
What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?On 22 August 2022, there were 3160 prisoners in structural units under LPA, the maximum number of prisoners to be accommodated currently is 4822, thus the percentage occupancy is 65,5%.
In the Moldovan prison system population expected to decrease or at least remain the same in the next few years. This due the tendency to replace the restrictive punishments with educational measures. Another reason that determines the potential decrease in inmate numbers is the current amnesty process. All of these put together should decrease the general prison population by 10%.
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?Yes, the Moldovan prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years. However we are constantly involved in a process of renewing the places of detentions in order to meet the international standards and human rights.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built?The Moldovan prison system in planning to built one new penitentiary institution in order to replace few century old places of detentions.
Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?Yes, the Moldovan prison systems has at least 3 (three) that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for full maintenance works)?
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?The Moldovan prison service does make demand and supply projections for prison places not less than once a year.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?In the Moldovan prison service not so often significant changes occur in regard to the demand and supply projections.
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers?The changes that rarely occur are explained to senior managers each by they cause and if there is a phenomenon, we try to predict and overcome the unlikely situations that could happen.
What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?The occupancy rate of the Moldovan prison capacity on the normal basis is balancing between 75% to 85%.
It is foreseen that the prison population in Catalonia will remain stable in the next few years. If interested, we can provide a graph reflecting prison population projections until 12/2027. The most significant adjustment results from the decrease of prison population occurring during the pandemic, which was unexpected.
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?Currently, if there are not sudden changes with regard to immigration inflows or penal reform, according to our projections, the Directorate General of Prison Services in Catalonia has sufficient capacity to meet the projections demand over the next 10 years.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built?NA
Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?Nowadays the DGPS is drafting a project to temporarily close the prison of Ponent for 2 years in order to renovate it. It is foreseen that the other prisons will be able to host the inmates that will be moved out from Ponent.
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?Projections about the prison population are being done by a unit that belongs to the Ministry of Justice and thus, serves the Directorate General of Prison Affairs and the Directorate General of Community Sanctions and Juvenile Justice. Are done on our own initiative periodically since the year 2000 at least once a year.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?The only significant change took place in 2010. The projections had foreseen an increase in the prison population but a penal reform was introduced in 2010. One of the aspects of this reform was the a 33% of reduction on the length of the sentences for drug related crimes. As a result of this reform, the length of the prison sentences for drug related crimes diminished 33%. The application of this penal reform had a retroactive effect, as any other penal reform that is in favour of the accused or sentenced. As a consequence, a significant amount of inmates was released. Such legislative change was a turning point, and since then, the trend of the prison population is decrease.
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers?High officials are being informed periodically about the projections at the meetings of the Directorate General.
What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?The occupancy rate of regular prisons is currently 85%. That of open prisons is 55%.
Our prison population is expected to decrease around 100 prisoners per year. 31.12.2021 we had 2181 prisoners (1774 convicts and 407 under arest). 2020 was number 2341 and 2019 total number was 2450. We are expecting that 31.12.2022 number of prisoners will be around 2000 and decrease will continue. By 2024 it will be definitely under 2000.
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?Yes we have sufficient capacity because number of prisoners is decreasing. We have more then plenty capacity in closed prisons, but not in open prisons. We are moving towards open prisons. That means we are planning to put more prisoners in open prison then closed, specially when it comes to minor or juvenile convicts.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built?When it comes to open prisons then we have several options. We are going to rebuilt our prisons or we are going to put prisoners in homes or apartments.
Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?No. We have only 3 prisons and oldest one is 20 years old (Tartu prison). 2018 was our latest prison closing (old Tallinn Prison).
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?Our prison population is decreasing so we dont have a problem with capacity in closed prisons.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?No
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers?-
What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?End of 2021 our occupancy rate was 65%. 2020 it was 72%. Occupancy rate is decreasing.
Any attempt to project the future prison population needs to take account of various factors including, but not limited to, crime trend/rates, courts outflow, national population change and any potential penal policy changes. Currently, the Irish Prison Service, or Department of Justice, does not have a prison population projection model that is run at regular intervals. However, analyses within the Justice sector are pointing to an increase in the prison population in both the short and medium term. For example, the National Census carried out in 2022 demonstrates a 6.8% increase in the prison population in Ireland from Census Night 2016 to Census Night 2022 – this reflects a current incarceration rate of 77.8 per 100,000. Based on Central Statistical Office projections for national population increases alone, we crudely estimate the daily average in custody to rise by 350 persons by 2036. To put this in context, on 01/09/2022, the number in custody was 4,178. In addition to predicted national population growth, the Courts Service in Ireland, like the UK, are faced with a backlog of cases following a prolonged period of restrictions on activity due to Covid-19. Depending on how this backlog is addressed, there is potential for a dramatic increase in Prison Service committal figures. Multiple scenarios have been modelled, however as these are not projections based on a policy decision, they will not be shared as part of this response.
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?• On 06 September 2022 there were 4,170 people in custody against a bed capacity of 4,375 resulting in an occupancy level of 94%. • Responding to rising prisoner numbers the Irish Prison Service implemented a Prison Population Management Plan in 2019. • This resulted in a number of actions to address overcrowding including the provision of an additional 140 spaces following an audit of existing cellular accommodation and enhanced use of open centres. • The reopening of the Training unit on the Mountjoy Prison Campus will provide an additional 96 spaces in Q3 of 2022 • The opening of the new accommodation in Limerick Prison in late 2022 will result in an additional 90 cells, subject to no further delays due to Covid-19. Senior Management will continue to monitor the prison capacity annually.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built?Answered above
Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?N/A
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?As outlined in question one, the Irish Prison Service is currently looking at the potential impact of national population growth based on National Census Data. Furthermore, the Prison Service has been engaged in a cross Justice Sector working group on the potential downstream impacts of policy measures to tackle the Covid backlog in the Courts Service. This group has produced four paper since April 2021. On an ongoing basis, the Prison Service monitors daily figures and upcoming releases to get a sense of prion projections in the immediate term.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?Prior to the onset of Covid, the Prison Service was experiencing a slow sustained increase in numbers in custody. However, reduced court activity and other Covid-19 related measures saw a reversal in that trend temporarily. The prison population is currently on an upward trajectory. Each yeah, there are typically short periods when demand drops, for example in August when the Courts are on Summer recess.
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers?A prison governance group, consisting of senior management from both the Irish Prison Service and the Department of Justice, meets quarterly. A statistical note is produced by the Irish Prison Service and distributed at this meeting. This document outlines prison population trends for the previous 12 months and illustrates key changes in the prison population.
What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?As of 01/09/2022, 94% of bed capacity was utilised across the estate.
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When elaborating the Conception of the Prison System of the Slovak Republic for the years 2022 to 2030, the basic strategic document determining the future direction of the prison system in Slovakia, we based on the medium-term prognosis of the prison population development. We applied the changes proposed by the Conception to the basic indicators of the current development of the prison population and registered criminality, the ratio of non-conditional prison sentences to the total number of sentences imposed by the courts, and we transferred the effects to the conservative, optimistic and pessimistic variants of the development of the number of inmates. In the conservative variant (i.e. stagnant or slightly decreasing number of registered criminality, maintaining the court practice of the percentage of non-conditional prison sentences to the total number of sentences imposed, absence of fundamental changes in the pre-trial proceedings, in the executive proceedings and in the state sanction policy) we expect the currently existing state of the prison population to be maintained. In the optimistic variant, which requires the implementation of the legislative changes we are currently working on (introduction of a mixed system of conditional release; introduction of a system of compulsory placement of inmates convicted of minor offences in open prisons; reduction of criminal rates for selected economic, business and drug offences), we expect a reduction in the prison population by at least 10% of the current level within 10 years. In the pessimistic variant (worsening of the economic situation and unemployment, increase in the number of registered offences, absence of fundamental changes in pre-trial proceedings, in the executive proceedings and in the state sanction policy, increase in short-term sentences), we expect an increase in the prison population by at least 10% of the current level within 10 years. However, as we believe that resource and capacity planning should be an evidence-based activity, we also plan to develop a certified tool for modelling medium-term prison population prognosis by 2026 (inspiration was EuroPris KMS from 2018 - https://www.europris.org/epis/kms/?detail=280).
Does your prison service currently have sufficient capacity to meet projected demand over the next 10 years?Yes, in terms of overall numbers (quantity), the current situation can be described as sufficient. In terms of qualitative requirements (e.g. increasing the minimum accommodation area per one inmate; abolishing large-capacity cells; introducing the principle of regional prison sentence execution and similar), we assume the necessity to build new prison facilities - several open prisons and one closed prison.
If not, what changes are you planning in your prisons to create more capacity? How many new places will be provided/built?-
Do you have any prisons that need to be closed permanently or temporarily (for example, for maintenance)?Yes, in view of the efforts for qualitative changes in accommodation conditions, we expect the necessity to renovate several prison buildings.
How often does your organisation make demand and supply projections for prison places?See answer to question no. 1.
Are there often significant changes to your demand and supply projections?Currently, we do not have a system in place that mandatorily determines the medium-term prognosis for the development of the prison population. The basic predictive factor is the medium-term prognosis of criminality development, which is the responsibility of other central public administration authorities (Interior Ministry, Ministry of Justice, etc.).
If so, how do you explain these changes to senior managers?See answer to question no. 6.
What is the occupancy rate (as a percentage) of your prison capacity?As of 31 August 2022, the overall occupancy rate of the existing prison facilities was 84.7% (3.5 m2/male prisoner and 4 m2/female prisoner). With a minimum of 4 m2 for all inmates, the capacity of the prisons would be 95.4 %.
This content is only available to registered members of EuroPris.
This content is only available to registered members of EuroPris.