Trends & Forecasting

Prison services do not operate in isolation. Political developments, demographic changes, technological innovation, evolving crime patterns and shifting public expectations all shape the environment in which they work. While these developments often lie beyond the direct control of prison administrations, they can have a significant impact on prison populations, workforce requirements, infrastructure, rehabilitation approaches and long-term strategic priorities.

Traditionally, prison services have focused primarily on responding to immediate operational challenges. However, the pace of change across Europe is increasing, creating a growing need to look beyond the short term and prepare for future opportunities and risks. Trend analysis, forecasting and strategic foresight can help organisations better understand uncertainty, identify emerging developments and support informed decision-making.

The Trends & Forecasting Expert Group provides a platform for prison administrations to exchange knowledge, explore future challenges and compare approaches to strategic planning. By sharing expertise and learning from developments across jurisdictions, the group aims to strengthen the capacity of prison services to anticipate change, build resilience and prepare for the future.